汪海良（上海建筑设计研究院有限公司，上海市 200041）

Research on Electrical Carbon Model Based on the Industrial Park

WANG Hailiang(Arcplus Institute of Shanghai Architectural Design & Research

（Co.,Ltd.）,Shanghai 200041，China)

Abstract：STL(Seasonal - Trend decomposition using Loess)model is employed to predict and analyze the carbon emission of buildings in the operation stage in the industrical park,the technical route for electrical carbon model,STL model building and linear regression are introduced,and the prediction results of carbon emission in a high‑tech industrial park from 2021 to 2022 are given. This paper can provide data support for the industrial park to plan the dual‑carbon path,prepare emission reduction plan and carry out energy conservation and emission reduction,and help the industrial park realize green and low‑carbon development goals.

Key words：industrial park;building carbon emission;prediction model for carbon emission;cooling degree days;STL;linear regression;algorithm;fitting

摘　要：利用STL（Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess，时间序列分解算法）模型对工业园区运行阶段的建筑碳排放进行预测分析，介绍电碳模型构建技术路线、模型构建的STL和线性回归，给出某高新园区2021年到2022年碳排放量的预测结果。可为园区规划双碳路径、制定减排计划、开展节能减排手段提供数据支撑，辅助园区实现绿色低碳发展目标。

关键词：工业园区；建筑碳排放；碳排放预测模型；冷却度日；STL；线性回归；算法；拟合

中图分类号：TU111.19 + 5    　  文献标识码：A

doi：10.3969 / j. issn.1003 － 8493.2024.07.001